September 27, 2022

Two numbers that should worry Republicans about Trump 2024

2 min read


It’s hard to find anyone these days who a) pays attention to Republican politics and b) thinks Donald Trump won’t run for a third term. In 2024.

But even as Republicans head toward what feels like an inevitable outcome, there are signs that Trump as the GOP nominee is a strong proposition for the party in 2024.

The latest has two such signs. The New York Times/Sinai College National Survey of Registered Voters.

1) 54% believe that Trump “has gone so far as to threaten American democracy” in his actions after the 2020 election. (Only 38% said they were “just exercising their right to contest.”)

2) 51% said Trump has committed “serious federal crimes” in connection with various ongoing investigations against him.

Consider these two data points. A majority of voters believe that the former President of the United States actively threatened American democracy and committed federal crimes.

And yet, despite those numbers, Republicans – or at least the Republican base – appear poised to nominate him again for the nation’s highest office.

Which sounds, well, like a threat?

(Note: In a Times/Sienna poll, Trump has a 42 percent lead in the 2024 presidential race, to Joe Biden’s 45 percent.)

The challenge for Republicans is to hold on to Trump. extremely Popular with the GOP base. That would make it very difficult for anyone — even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — to knock him off in a primary fight.

But numbers like these should make Republicans worry about what they’ll achieve with Trump as their nominee. Are voters really going to support a candidate who they believe has broken federal laws?

point: Welcome to the Trump conundrum – undefeated (or close to it) in a primary and deeply troubled in the general election.

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