October 5, 2022

Tropical Depression Nine: Gulf of Mexico at threat for a potential hurricane

3 min read




CNN

Tropical Depression Nine formed in the central Caribbean early Friday morning and will likely become the next tropical storm – named Hermine, according to the National Hurricane Center.

This system is of interest to meteorologists because American and European weather forecast models show it. Developing into a hurricane and will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Nine carried winds of 35 mph about 615 miles east-southeast of Jamaica, with gusts of 13 mph to the west-northwest.

Tropical Depression Nine is located over the central Caribbean Sea on Friday morning.

“Only slow intensification is forecast for the next day or so, followed by more significant intensification late into the weekend and into early next week,” the hurricane center said.

In the short term, Nine is forecasting heavy rains in Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, northern Venezuela and northern Colombia that could cause flooding and mudslides on the islands.

The system is then forecast to gain strength, intensifying into a tropical storm as it moves toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Tropical storm watches and warnings are likely to be issued for these locations within the next 24 hours.

Tomorrow’s Rain Forecast:

  • Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao: Additional 1 to 2 inches
  • Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches
  • Northern Columbia: 3 to 6 inches
  • Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with local maximums of 12 inches
  • Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches
  • Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with local maximums of up to 6 inches.

After moving through the Caribbean later this week, the system is forecast to track as a hurricane near or over western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

“Early model guidance is in fairly good agreement, but by 48 hours large-scale dispersion begins to take shape,” the hurricane center said. “There is still considerable uncertainty in the track forecast in the Day 4-5 time frame.”

Both major weather forecast models, American and European, currently show the system tracking into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. However, the American shows a more westerly track and the European shows a more easterly track.

On Friday morning, the European model showed a storm over the Florida Keys on Tuesday, affecting much of South Florida. The US model showed the storm affecting the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday.

The official forecast track from the hurricane’s center splits the gap between forecast models, with the storm expected to make landfall as a strong Category 2 hurricane late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning on the Florida peninsula. approaches.

The track of the hurricane's center on Friday morning would have seen the system enter the Gulf of Mexico and affect Florida early next week.

Regardless of where the storms are located, conditions in the Gulf are conducive to strengthening the system.Maria Torres, spokeswoman for the hurricane center, told CNN that it will work very quickly.

It’s a slow start to what was forecast to be an above-average hurricane season. Only one hurricane has made landfall in the US territory, and no hurricanes have made landfall or threatened the contiguous United States.

Now, a week after the peak of hurricane season, the tropics seem to have woken up, and forecasters worry that people have let their guard down.

“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has accelerated,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University.

“People let their guard down and think, oh, yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Torres said. “But really, the weather is ongoing. We’re still in September. We still have October. Anything that builds up in the Atlantic or the Caribbean is something we need to monitor very closely.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

Regardless, if you live along the Gulf Coast, the Caribbean, Florida and other states, pay attention to the latest forecasts this weekend into early next week.



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