October 7, 2022

The next named storm could be a monster hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico

3 min read

According to the National Hurricane Center, an area of ​​disorganized activity about 200 miles east of the eastern Caribbean Sea will likely become the next tropical storm — named Hermine — in the next few days, perhaps in the next few hours. In, according to the National Hurricane Center.

This small cluster of storms is of interest to meteorologists because American and European forecast models consistently show them. Developing in tropical systems and entering the Gulf of Mexico — although models don’t have the best track record when predicting that period.

“The fact that almost every computer model out there turns this into a westward-moving hurricane,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.

The hurricane center says it has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance of strengthening over the next five days. So growth is likely — but where it’s going is still somewhat debated.

“Well, there’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” hurricane center spokeswoman Maria Torres told CNN. “But yes, it’s something we’re keeping an eye on and we’re monitoring closely as we come into the weekend and into early next week.”

Over the next several days, the disturbance is forecast to move west-northwest toward the southern Windward Islands — on the eastern edge of the Caribbean — and then into the central Caribbean Sea by the end of the week, the hurricane center said Wednesday morning. has been done

By late next week, both models show the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. model shows the storm as a major and potentially major hurricane. It is shown making landfall in the Florida panhandle by September 30. The European model hit southern Florida a day earlier as a much smaller but nearly as intense storm.

If the storm system makes it into the Gulf as forecast models say, conditions are ripe for development.

“The water is extremely warm, and the atmosphere is very favorable for rapid growth,” Myers said.

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are conducive to strengthening the system.And it will do it very quickly, Torres told CNN.

It’s a slow start to what was forecast to be an above-average hurricane season. Only one hurricane has made landfall in the US territory, and no hurricanes have made landfall or threatened the contiguous United States.

Now, a week after the peak of hurricane season, the tropics seem to have woken up, and forecasters worry that people have let their guard down.

“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has accelerated,” tweeted Colorado State University (CSU) research scientist Phil Klotzbach.

“People let their guard down and think, oh, yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Torres said. “But really, the season is on. We’re still in September; we still have October to go. Anything that builds up in the Atlantic or the Caribbean is something we need to monitor very closely. ”

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

Four times a day, the US forecast model and the European model spit out an updated forecast. And after each race, meteorologists will tweet what they think.

Regardless, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast, pay attention and see what the National Hurricane Center says once a hurricane becomes strong enough to be named. The track it releases at the moment will give a fairly good indication of what is most likely to happen.

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