September 27, 2022

The Supreme Court abortion leak has already transformed politics all over America

7 min read


Every major politician in power in the country and those who strive for it face sudden, profound and sometimes treacherous questions on abortion before the final decision of the Supreme Court, which may differ from the draft. Some people also feel big political opportunities.

Democratic governors are vowing to stand up for abortion rights against Republican lawmakers who are trying to ban the practice, even in some cases with the exception of rape and rape. Without National Republican leaders are facing a new test that could complicate their hopes of creating a conducive environment for the midterm elections.

The current Democratic-led Senate, meanwhile, will vote Wednesday on a bill regulating abortion rights. It is expected to fail, as there may not be enough Democrats to get a simple majority, let alone the 60 votes needed to bring the largest legislation into law. But the vote will be a significant symbolic moment that shapes future action on the issue.

“Every American will see where every senator stands,” said Chuck Schumer, a New York Democratic Senate majority leader on Monday.

This seems like a clear political moment.

The left has a problem to fight suddenly, which could ease the political storm for President Joe Biden and other Democrats in November, as they point out. National elections The majority of Americans support maintaining Roe. The right wing is looking at the decades-long political mission to reverse the historic decision at the bottom of the line of success, while some conservatives are pushing for further adherence to the procedure.

Both sides could see a fundamental change that could transform the country socially and legally, possibly for generations, and it could accelerate the already severe cultural erosion between the red states and the blue states. In places like Texas, the gulf may widen between liberal cities and conservative countryside. Often left out of the conversation, however, are the people who will be most affected by these changes. Minority women, for example, may suffer the consequences of any new legal change because their health care and outcomes are already poor.

It’s been a week since Politico’s story on the draft Justice Samuel Elliott’s opinion surfaced on the Internet. But its shock waves have hit almost every state, every legislator and every candidate in 2022.

Senators quickly passed a bill to increase security for the families of Supreme Court judges.

The reason is twofold. First, the legal, social, political, and scientific issues surrounding abortion are emotional. But this new phase of the abortion debate is different. Prior to the emergence of Elliott’s brilliant draft, questions about the issue were somewhat hypothetical, as many Americans did not see Roe in danger. Now, depending on the Supreme Court’s final vote expected in the coming weeks, the federal right to abortion could well be abolished.

It will take months for the final political turmoil to unfold. But there is a new political reality.

Michigan Democrat Debbie Dingle told CNN’s Jack Tapper on Monday: It could happen in states across the United States. ” “I think people are being suddenly reminded that, in the last few months, it has not been the case that their votes have results.”

State offices suddenly become even more important.

The practical effect of the Supreme Court’s decision to abolish Roe v. Wade would be to return the matter to the state legislature. It has given more importance to the state elections this fall – to the state houses and to the governor.

Take, for example, a state like Pennsylvania, which currently has a Republican-controlled state House and Senate, and a one-time limited Democratic governor, Tom Wolf. If the GOP gains full control in Harrisburg, it could seek to ban access to abortion in Keystone State. Most Republican presidential candidates have taken a hard line against abortion. In a ___ Governorship debate, State Sen. Doug Mastiano The fight to abolish abortion seems to be likened to a movement to end the slave trade in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, which invited the leading British politician William Wilberforce to the movement. What was State Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is running for Democratic governor, has warned that abortion will be illegal in Pennsylvania unless he wins the race.
Proponents of abortion are sounding the alarm about nearly a century-old state law.

“The next governor will have a bill on his table that would ban abortion. Let me tell you something: each of these people will sign this bill,” Shapiro told Republicans at Volksbury on Saturday. According to Pittsburgh. Post Gazette

Voters in other states face similar choices. In Wisconsin, Democratic government Tony Evers, who has vetoed several bills to prevent legal abortion, is running for re-election in a swinging state where Republicans control both houses of the legislature. The issue could also run in the US Senate race, where Republican Senator Ron Johnson Has high inconsistent rating. Wisconsin Democrats will seek to exclude young voters and women who may be affected by the abortion issue.

In Michigan, Democratic government Gretchen Whitmer, who is running for re-election, is fighting in court to block the implementation of the 1931 state law that could be re-enacted if the Supreme Court overturns Roy v. Wade. Yes, and can make Michigan one of the most popular. States that prohibit abortion. These are all examples of campaigns in which Democrats hope an encouraging turnout from abortion-loving voters could push them down the line, with rising gas prices and high inflation in the national context. Despite voter engagements.

But those states also offer a glimpse of the openness for Republicans to bring about extraordinary change across the country if the High Court empowers states to enact their own abortion laws.

McConnell fumbles

Republican Senate leaders, along with former President Donald Trump, are most responsible for building a majority in the Supreme Court that could overturn Roe v. Wade. A possible majority against abortion in the High Court without the immediate blockchain of Kentucky by then-President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee before the 2016 election and immediate confirmation of Trump’s election day before the 2020 election. Not likely.

McConnell worked hard last week to avoid being drawn into political turmoil, instead focusing on the unprecedented leak from the Supreme Court. His strategy was that of a leader who wanted to see what the outcome would be.

But in an interview with USA Today, McConnell said it was “possible” that the issue would be addressed in future legislation. He warned that if he were the majority leader, he would not eliminate the need for a flybuster, which would probably be necessary to pass an abortion ban. And as long as Biden is president, such a Senate bill would face a special veto.

The GOP rejected abortion legislation when McConnell proposed

However, McConnell’s remarks, which were remarkably blunt by such a silent public speaker, may have provided an opportunity for Democrats to mobilize their constituents by arguing that the Republican-led Senate Will make abortion illegal. For example, a new digital ad by New Hampshire Democrat Sen. Maggie Haasan, accusing McConnell of “decades of crusade to criminalize abortion,” points out. ۔

That’s why Senate Republicans have been quick to push for the idea, CNN’s Manu Raju, Melania Zanona and Ted Barrett reported Monday evening.

“I don’t think it’s really a good idea for Congress to pass a national law,” said Sen. John Corn of Texas, a member of McConnell’s leadership team.

Even Missouri conservative Josh Holly tried to distance himself from the idea. “This will not be my priority outside the gate,” said the Republican senator. “I think it would be better for the states to debate it, let it breathe and work for Congress where there is a national consensus.”

Asked on Monday if he would ban abortion on the Senate floor under a possible GOP majority in the next Congress, McConnell did not respond directly, instead pointing to his floor remarks where He said he would “never support breaking legislation on this issue. Or anyone else.”

“I spoke to her earlier today,” he told CNN.

But McConnell’s words will live on in countless Democratic campaign ads, even if the most urgent legislative changes to overturn the Supreme Court vote are likely to be in the states. History has shown that Democrats must take seriously McConnell’s desire to use the power he has acquired.

Are Republicans ready for political influence?

There were also signs on Sunday where Roe v. The end of Wade will confirm the decades-long conservative campaign, some Republicans are not yet ready for political results.

Mississippi Governor Tate ReevesFor example, he struggled to answer Tapper’s questions on “State of the Union” whether the draft relied on legal reasoning, which could be used for drastic measures such as the ban on birth control. ۔
The governor's response to the abortion, um, is something to be desired.

“It’s not something we’ve spent too much time on,” Reeves told Tapper in a contradictory response. Democrats will use it in their wider campaign. .

But Republicans also see a start to a renewed focus on abortion – especially in this spring’s primary. In Georgia, where former Senator David Purdue is challenging the current governor with a Trump-backed challenge, he called for a special legislative session to enforce an abortion ban if Roy v. Wade is overturned, as he is a court of law. The foundation seeks voters. .

It remains to be seen whether Democrats can use this issue effectively to restore their base and eliminate enough suburban moderates to keep Georgia’s midterm elections as close as the state was in 2020. , When Biden won it easily. But Peach State candidates, like their counterparts across the country, will all have to contend with a sudden political upheaval this month – however the Supreme Court has finally come to terms with this.



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