November 30, 2022

Supreme Court’s draft opinion sends electric shock through midterm campaigns

6 min read

Of course, the implications of this story go far beyond Washington, partisan politics and double interpretations of the law, the nature of the precedent and the constitution.

Losing access to abortion would mean that millions of women would lose the right to make decisions about their bodies – whether their health or their lives were at stake. The burden of this massive erosion of women’s rights is likely to fall heavily on poor, minority women whose health outcomes and access are already poor.

In contrast, the historical attitude versus the Wade decision will also be the story of generations of conservative activists, who A sincere moral mission To eliminate what they see as an inhumane way that they think is against the founding values ​​of the United States.

Yet for all its human dimensions, the issue of abortion is a natural political question. However, if the court overturns Roe v. Wade, it would be the end of successive Republican political campaigns that have created a conservative majority in the court. And it will widen the growing cultural, legal and political divide between Republican-led states, where abortion will be banned, and the Democratic-controlled stronghold where lawmakers will keep it legal.

Democratic challenge

The challenge for Democrats now – in the midterm elections in November and possibly for years to come – is whether they can campaign as effectively on abortion as Republicans do.

For decades, Republicans have called for an end to abortion and the need to build a majority in Washington to build a Supreme Court against abortion rights.

Democrats have used the issue. Activate their foundation and save money. – Look at the effect of the EMILY list, which supports women candidates supporting abortion rights, for example – the same solid focus on this basic issue has never been expressed in Democratic presidential, congressional and local events. has been.

This difference may reflect the revolutionary zeal of the conservatives mobilizing to break the stalemate and the pleasure of the liberals who have lived with it for most of their lives.

Mallory Carroll, an anti-abortion activist who serves as Susan B. Anthony List’s vice president of communications, told CNN’s Erin Burnett on Tuesday that the issue always moves from left to right.

Elito's draft opinion to reverse the rhetoric is all that the anti-abortion movement has worked for.

“Historically, differences of opinion have favored pro-life candidates,” Carroll said, but added that she was confident the issue would motivate voters on both sides in November.

That’s what Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said outside the Supreme Court on Tuesday.

“Republicans have been working to this day for decades,” Warren said. “They are conspiring to get out of there, carefully preparing these Supreme Court judges so that they have a majority on the bench who can do something that the majority of Americans do not want.”

It is appropriate to question the political system that saw The then President Donald TrumpThose who failed to get a majority of popular votes, nominate three judges who strengthened the conservative dominance of the bench. And there are even stronger grounds for exposing the hypocritical moves of then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who gave birth to this edge.

But for the most part, the Republicans worked to reach Reuben through the right political framework, which the Supreme Court seems to be about to overtake. And the Democrats lacked the ruthlessness to pursue their motives for that sole purpose.

A lot has been done with the polls that show this. Roe v. American overwhelming majority. Oppose the overthrow of Wade. Since Monday night’s Elliott draft has surfaced. For example, a CNN poll in January indicated that 69% would oppose such a decision.
Biden's Political and Personal Evolution on Abortion After Publication of Supreme Court Opinion

But the question for Democrats is: can they get people to vote on it?

Former Texas Senator Wendy Davis believes she will do so after watching nationwide pro-abortion rallies on Tuesday.

“This is just the beginning of what I think is going to be a major tipping point in the 2022 election cycle,” the Democrat told CNN’s AC360. From the Democrats – to bring his ideology to the fore President Joe Biden And Vice President Kamala Harris will have to demonstrate in front of local candidates – a political intensity and discipline of a tireless message that has so far stayed away from them in a tumultuous time.
Harris gave. A passionate speech “How dare a woman tell me what she can and can’t do with her body,” Emily said at the List Gala on Tuesday.

But there is no guarantee that focusing on abortion alone will cause Democrats problems such as high gasoline prices and inflation.

How can Republicans be weak?

In this context, Democrats suddenly have the same answer to the problem they have been facing for weeks: what is their message in the mid-term election campaign from an unpopular president and more inflation, voters on immigration Apparent incompetence and guilt in responding to the concerns of?

In principle, it should be easier for them to link the growing decision to abortion with claims that Republicans – some of whom are campaigning hard against the rights of eunuchs and discussing race in education. Eliminating – has run into extremism. The message emphasizing the need to protect abortion rights – or punishing Republicans for abolishing them – could also be a way to increase support among suburban female voters who will win the Democrats in 2018 and Biden’s. Were key to winning 2020.

After months of uncertainty over the mid-term message, Democrats turned their attention to abortion.
Issue Can make an opening offer Republican-administered states where large numbers of Democratic women face the loss of their constitutional right to abortion. Texas Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke clearly thinks so. She announced a rally for abortion rights in Houston on Saturday, and cut a video showing every sign of putting the issue at the center of her long-shot campaign to oust Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. Gone

“We are going to organize, we are going to hold rallies, and we are going to fight for the rights of our fellow taxi drivers, especially for the right to abortion which is unlike any other place in the country. I’m under the influence, “said O’Rourke.

Abortion is an issue that will emphasize one of the emerging features of Texas politics – sectarianism among Republicans, who dominate state power and attract the wider state center, and Houston. Like cities where most Democratic voters live. This is a division that is reflected in the whole country.

Democrats who have expressed concern about the intensity of their core enthusiasm also hope to use the issue to reduce Republicans in swing states like Wisconsin. As the Politico story unfolded, Sen. Ron Johnson, the weakest Republican incumbent senator this year, was already trying to divert the conversation to topics that have made Democrats stand defensively. ۔

“Take a look at open borders, 40-year high inflation, record gas prices, rising crime,” Johnson said. “They can’t talk about the consequences of their rule, so they have to try and find something else to run.”

Silent conservative celebrations

Conservatives should have celebrated on Tuesday the prospect of a political victory.

But a lot of people were showing strange restraint, reflecting the uncertain political effects of this lightning strike. Many choose to focus on drafting opinion – gross violation of Supreme Court security – Demand for Leak Investigation And the culprit should be severely punished.

“I need you, I think – to forgive the lecture – to focus on today’s news. Not the leaked draft but the fact that the draft was leaked,” McConnell said. The senate’s minority leader told reporters. .

What do we know about the Supreme Court leak investigation?

Another member of the Senate Republican leadership, Senator John Thoth of South Dakota, also seemed reluctant to consider the medium-term implications of the Elliott draft opinion – and the Supreme Court’s final decision.

“I don’t know if it’s a party issue,” Thone told CNN. “I think it’s more a matter of conscience.”

Republicans’ caution may reflect concerns that political turmoil could sway some conservative judges and jeopardize their victory over Roe v. Wade. But it also shows that there is now an unexpected element in the unusually well-crafted campaign in favor of the GOP.

And Democrats believe they have an opening.

“They’re like the dog that grabbed the bus,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. “They know they are on the wrong side of history. They know they are on the wrong side where the American people are.”

CNN’s Alex Rogers, Mano Raju, Melania Zanona, Morgan Reimer and Ryan Nobles contributed to the story.

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