February 3, 2023

Five days that changed the war in Ukraine

8 min read

Each day brings with it a sense of serious, historic events and decisions that will not only determine who will win the biggest ground war between the two countries in Europe since World War II, but will shape the rest of the 21st century. will give.

“Throughout our history, we have learned that when dictators do not pay the price for their aggression, they spread more chaos and engage in more aggression,” Biden said. “They keep moving. And the costs, the risks to the United States and the world, keep increasing. We can’t let that happen.”

Hawkish British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was blunt: “Geopolitics is back.”

In just a few days, a new feeling began in Washington, Europe, Kyiv and Moscow. The war is turning into that now. A long, bitter struggleIt could potentially cost thousands more lives and tens of billions of dollars. The US strategy is now vague and public – to weaken Russia in order to reduce its global threat. It contains fresh evidence of the Kremlin’s desire to destroy Ukrainian culture. Pulverizing the eastern and southern cities. And Putin launched a new front – the energy war – as he cut off natural gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland, which the European Union immediately dubbed “blackmail.”

As these conflicting objectives come to the fore, nuclear rhetoric heats up again, Russia seeks to warn of the inherent power of its vast arsenal, and Washington seeks to avoid a growing cycle of direct superpowers. May cause power conflict.

Russia is making it 'slow and uneven' US officials say the military is trying to resolve issues that were raised by the initial attack.

Massacres continue in Ukraine. Evil attacks and sieges of urban areas preceded the new invasion of Russia’s south and east – battles that could decide whether Ukraine survived as a nation. However, the first signs this week are that the Russians, who have been accused of atrocities, may face accountability.

But the alarming fact is that there is no credible diplomatic way to end the war, which came to light on Thursday when a Russian missile landed on Kyiv. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres was still in town. On a seemingly futile mission, which began earlier this week with a tense conversation with Putin.

An escalating war

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speak to reporters in Poland on April 25, 2022.

In a news blackout on Sunday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Anthony Blankenship’s visit to Kyiv marked a week in which the West plunged itself into a proxy war with Russia. ۔

  • “We want to see Russia weak enough to do what it did to invade Ukraine.” Austin said in Poland After returning from Ukraine
  • Blinken envisioned a long-term future. He may have opposed the Kremlin’s powerful man, saying that there would be a free, independent Ukraine, and that “Vladimir Putin is going to be much taller than that.”
  • The United States has convened a meeting of key international defense ministers in Germany to support its new strategic explanation. Monthly meeting To assess the needs of the government in Kyiv.
  • These moves give rise to a growing sense that the war in Ukraine will not end soon. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that war could break out. “Drag and stay for months and years.”
  • Truss, meanwhile, called for an increase in US and Western military aid to protect against Russian expansionism – for arming nations in the Western Balkans and non-NATO states. Georgia and Moldova.
  • Russia, in response to a harsh Western strategy, has taken steps to widen the conflict. Preventing natural gas exports Pay your bills in rubles after Poland and Bulgaria refuse to join the scheme to avoid sanctions. Further escalation in the energy war could plunge Europe into recession.
  • The catastrophic global consequences of the war were emphasized when the World Bank warned Worst thing in 50 years. Russia and Ukraine are key producers of coal, oil, natural gas and cooking oil, and will hurt the budgets of millions of people worldwide. The potential failure of this summer’s crop in Ukraine – a major source of wheat and corn for the world – could send food prices to a new level of inflation and further fuel food insecurity. In the United States, higher prices can have a big impact. Mid-term elections in November.
  • Biden ended a week that reshaped the world with an extraordinary landscape. درخواست 33 billion request to Congress Warns Ukraine for arms, economic aid and humanitarian aid, “The cost of this war is not cheap.”

The President’s request emphasizes how the war in Ukraine is not only a clear position of his administration but also the recent events that will provoke a backlash from the political, economic and geopolitical chain of events to be predicted. Impossible and difficult to control.

Nuclear sword fight

With the strategic expansion of the war, a new era began. Dangerous nuclear rhetoric From Moscow
Russia's opposition leader wants to counter Vladimir Putin through advertisements on YouTube.

Although the extraordinary talk about the use of the world’s most dangerous weapons may be designed to intimidate the Western population, it nevertheless emphasizes that the two most powerful nuclear powers in the world, the United States and Russia. There will be a possibility of a catastrophic collision between the two. As long as the war continues.

Some US experts see Russia’s tough stance as a sign that Putin is frustrated with his failure to achieve his strategic goals in Ukraine. But it also serves as a reminder to Western leaders that their large-scale surrender in Ukraine could make it difficult to define Putin’s red lines and escalate to dangerous levels. And there are fears that, if pushed into a corner, Putin could deploy one of Russia’s small-scale tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine.

  • As the United States presented its tough stance on the war – weakening Russia’s military might – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov once again resorted to a familiar Russian strategy. Talking about nuclear war.Warning, “The danger is real and we must not underestimate it.”
  • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Millie for the United States Told CNN Russia should not make such provocative statements. He said it was “absolutely irresponsible” for any senior nuclear leader to start “wielding a nuclear sword”.
  • But Putin was not listening. After several dark warnings about the power of Russia’s nuclear weapons at the start of the war, the Russian president returned to it. He said Russia would respond “lightning fast” if other countries intervened in Ukraine. He told lawmakers in St. Petersburg, “We have all the tools for that – no one can brag about it. And we will not brag. We will use them when needed. And I want to.” Let everyone know, “he told lawmakers in St. Petersburg.
  • All of this prompted Biden to warn of the dangers of such rhetoric. Biden said in the White House on Thursday that “no one should comment on the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons or the need to use them.”
  • Such bitter exchanges between Russia and the United States have fueled relations between the two countries. “in deep” US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan told CNN on Thursday.

Massacre gets worse.

Locals are seen outside the apartment building destroyed in Mariupol on April 28, 2022.
Russia’s attempt to stifle eastern and southern Ukraine and cut off its access to the Black Sea – a new phase in Moscow’s war strategy after its failure to capture Kyiv – is gaining momentum Is. But one thing has not changed. Ukrainian citizen Putin’s determination and cruelty are being met with horror. Russian troops are also apparently paying the price for their leader’s obsession with Ukraine.
  • Ukraine’s military said Thursday that Russian forces were spraying. Extreme fires on several fronts. They are seeking progress in the Izim region of eastern Ukraine and are trying to move beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
  • In another indication that the war could last longer, a senior US defense official said Russian forces were doing just that. “Slow and growing” progress In the Donbass area, partly due to logistics and sustainability issues.
  • But attacks on Russian citizens are still the cause of horrific massacres. Ivan Fedorov, Mayor of the city of Militopol, Warned this week That Putin’s forces “want to kill the entire Ukrainian nation.”
  • Meanwhile, a CNN team visited the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, which is under constant Russian bombardment, and discovered. Extraordinary destruction.
  • A surprising new assessment has been made by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. 8.3 million refugees He is now expected to flee the country. As of Monday, 5.2 million had already left.
  • Putin’s relentless pursuit of life is not limited to the Ukrainians who are targeted by his guns. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace made the remarks on Monday. 15,000 Russian military personnel Killed in just two months in Ukraine.
  • On another optimistic note, there were signs this week that the Russians may face some responsibility for what appears to be war crimes. Drone video Russian vehicles can be seen on the streets near the bodies of civilians killed in Bocha, outside of Kyiv, in a geographical location confirmed by CNN. Evidence could help disprove Russia’s denial that its troops killed Ukrainians with cold blood.
  • And Ukraine’s General Prosecutor Irina Vendiktova said on Thursday. 10 Russian soldiers The alleged perpetrators of violence against civilians in the town were identified.

Diplomacy gets cold.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is seen on the fourth left during a visit to Bucha on the outskirts of Kyiv on April 28, 2022.

This week’s biggest diplomatic hope was the visit of UN Guterres to both Moscow and Kyiv. But there is no justification for either side to talk. This is partly due to the incomprehensible mistrust of Ukraine following the incredible attack on Putin. But there is also a sense in Ukraine and the Western capitals that Putin’s disengagement from the bloody cost of his war is a clear sign that he is determined to grind as long as he has the means to declare such a victory. Can’t find a reasonable basis for what is not yet visible. .

  • Guterres told CNN that Putin had agreed in principle to allow the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross to help evacuate civilians. Azovstal steel plant in MariupolThe city is the last stronghold of Ukrainian resistance.
  • But his visit to Kyiv on Thursday, which ended after Russian missiles hit the city, was a fitting sign of Russia’s current attitude towards diplomacy and its contempt for the rule of law, which the United Nations United was formed to protect.

The disappointing fact over a weekend set aside for the West and Russia is that peace in Ukraine could be far from over after the invasion. And while the West can send a storm of arms, ammunition and aid to the country, it cannot end a war that will send waves of painful and dangerous political, military and economic shock around the world for months to come. Only Putin can do that.

As Guttierez put it. Interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper“The war will not end with meetings. The war will end when the Russian Federation decides to end it and when there is a serious political agreement. We can have all the meetings but that is not what will end the war.”

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