Analysis: The US economy shrank and that’s disastrous for Democrats’ 2022 chances
3 min read
The country’s gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 1.4% between January and March – a dramatic reversal of the 6.9% GDP growth recorded by the United States in the last quarter of 2021. (GDP is seen as a broad guide. The overall health of the country’s economy.)
More than four out of ten Americans (42%) said the economic situation in the United States was “bad”, while another 38% said they were just “fair” in Gallup’s April poll. Only 2% said economic conditions were “excellent”, while 18% said they were “good.”
More than three out of four – 76% of Americans said the economy is getting worse, compared to 20% who said it is getting better.
And Gallup’s economic confidence index, which measures respondents’ feelings about the economy, is currently at +39 (100) to -100 (very low). (It was at -6 in July 2021.)
Include all of these factors, and you’ll find President Joe Biden and the Democrats facing a very toxic political environment as they prepare to defend a majority in their House and Senate in November.
There are two factors that complicate any attempt by Biden to turn the tide of the economy – and, more importantly, voter perceptions – around:
2) There are only 194 days left between today and November 2022 elections. Politically, this is a very short window to change people’s perceptions of the economy – especially if inflation (and gas prices) remain close to their current levels.
If things stay roughly where they are today – in terms of economic measures such as GDP and CPI and Americans’ perceptions of the state of the economy – Democrats face a ballot box crash this fall. it will have to be done. The question will not be whether they have a slim majority in the House and Senate, but rather how big the electoral hole will be to try to get them out of the next decade.
