February 3, 2023

Analysis: The US economy shrank and that’s disastrous for Democrats’ 2022 chances

3 min read

The country’s gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 1.4% between January and March – a dramatic reversal of the 6.9% GDP growth recorded by the United States in the last quarter of 2021. (GDP is seen as a broad guide. The overall health of the country’s economy.)

And in a really bad omen, shrinking GDP was the worst performance since the move. The economy went into recession. Between the closure of the country in the spring of 2020.

More than four out of ten Americans (42%) said the economic situation in the United States was “bad”, while another 38% said they were just “fair” in Gallup’s April poll. Only 2% said economic conditions were “excellent”, while 18% said they were “good.”

More than three out of four – 76% of Americans said the economy is getting worse, compared to 20% who said it is getting better.

And Gallup’s economic confidence index, which measures respondents’ feelings about the economy, is currently at +39 (100) to -100 (very low). (It was at -6 in July 2021.)

The economy – as you might expect from these negative numbers – is a major issue for many Americans. Four out of 10 Americans told Gallup that economic problems are the biggest problem facing the country, with inflation topping the list. (Of The consumer price index rose 8.5 percent in March.This is the highest number in 40 years.)

Include all of these factors, and you’ll find President Joe Biden and the Democrats facing a very toxic political environment as they prepare to defend a majority in their House and Senate in November.

“This is the worst political environment I’ve ever had as a political advisor in 30 years.” Biden Polster John Anzalon said recently. He is right.
The midterm elections in the first term of the president are as bad as usual for his party in Congress. But he The trend has gotten worse When the president is unpopular, as Biden is now. (In Gallup’s first quarter polls, Biden’s job approval rating dropped to just 41%.)

There are two factors that complicate any attempt by Biden to turn the tide of the economy – and, more importantly, voter perceptions – around:

1) Despite being the most powerful position in the country, a president has a limited ability to mobilize a struggling economy. Biden’s bloodbath The agenda of better legislation seems dead in the water. In addition, Biden is already in a very bad position with voters on the economy. Only 33% of Americans agree with how he handles it. Quinnipiac University Survey Released earlier this week.

2) There are only 194 days left between today and November 2022 elections. Politically, this is a very short window to change people’s perceptions of the economy – especially if inflation (and gas prices) remain close to their current levels.

If things stay roughly where they are today – in terms of economic measures such as GDP and CPI and Americans’ perceptions of the state of the economy – Democrats face a ballot box crash this fall. it will have to be done. The question will not be whether they have a slim majority in the House and Senate, but rather how big the electoral hole will be to try to get them out of the next decade.

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